References

Akata, Elif, Lion Schulz, Julian Coda-Forno, Seong Joon Oh, Matthias Bethge, and Eric Schulz. 2025. “Playing Repeated Games with Large Language Models.” Nature Human Behaviour, ahead of print. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-025-02172-y.
Anderson, Lisa R., and Charles A. Holt. 1997. “Information Cascades in the Laboratory.” The American Economic Review 87 (5): 847–62. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2951328.
Armstrong McKay, David I., Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, et al. 2022. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.” Science 377 (6611): eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950.
Aumann, Robert J., and Lloyd S. Shapley. 2013. “Long-Term Competition — a Game-Theoretic Analysis.” Annals of Economics and Finance 14 (2(B)): 609–22. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:12445032.
Balliet, Daniel. 2010. “Communication and Cooperation in Social Dilemmas: A Meta-Analytic Review.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1): 39–57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002709352443.
Banerjee, Abhijit V. 1992. “A Simple Model of Herd Behavior.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (3): 797–817. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118364.
Bardi, Ugo. 2017. The Seneca Effect: Why Growth Is Slow but Collapse Is Rapid. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57207-9.
Bardi, Ugo. 2018. A Seneca Collapse for the World’s Human Population? Journal of Population and Sustainability 2 (2): 21–32. https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.21.
Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch. 1992. “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy 100 (5): 992–1026. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138632.
Bito, Mikako, Keita Nishimoto, Kimitaka Asatani, and Ichiro Sakata. 2026. Large Language Models Exhibit Normative Conformity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19301.
Black, Duncan. 1948. “On the Rationale of Group Decision-Making.” Journal of Political Economy 56 (1): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1086/256633.
Bochet, Olivier, Talbot Page, and Louis Putterman. 2006. “Communication and Punishment in Voluntary Contribution Experiments.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 60 (1): 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2003.06.006.
Brookins, Philip, and Jason DeBacker. 2024. “Playing Games with GPT: What Can We Learn about a Large Language Model from Canonical Strategic Games?” Economics Bulletin 44 (1): 25–37. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-23-00457.html.
Brosig, Jeannette, Joachim Weimann, and Axel Ockenfels. 2003. “The Effect of Communication Media on Cooperation.” German Economic Review 4 (2): 217–41. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0475.00080.
Brunelli, Roberto. 2026a. BDPD1 — Governance: Cheap Talk and Sanctioning on a Fragile Commons. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20679157.
Brunelli, Roberto. 2026b. BDPD2 — Governance of Nested Commons: Four Vignettes. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20679946.
Brunelli, Roberto. 2026c. BDPD3 — Governing the Signal, Not the Symptom: Leading-Indicator Regulation Prevents the Seneca Cascade in a Polycentric Commons. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20680200.
Burlando, Roberto M., and Francesco Guala. 2005. “Heterogeneous Agents in Public Goods Experiments.” Experimental Economics 8 (1): 35–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-005-0436-4.
Camerer, Colin F. 2003. Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction. Princeton University Press.
Campbell, Donald T. 1979. “Assessing the Impact of Planned Social Change.” Evaluation and Program Planning 2 (1): 67–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/0149-7189(79)90048-X.
Carlisle, Keith, and Rebecca L. Gruby. 2019. Polycentric Systems of Governance: A Theoretical Model for the Commons.” Policy Studies Journal 47 (4): 927–52. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12212.
Carpenter, S. R., J. J. Cole, M. L. Pace, et al. 2011. “Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment.” Science 332 (6033): 1079–82. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203672.
Çelen, Boğaçhan, and Shachar Kariv. 2004. “Distinguishing Informational Cascades from Herd Behavior in the Laboratory.” American Economic Review 94 (3): 484–98. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828041464461.
Centola, Damon, Joshua Becker, Devon Brackbill, and Andrea Baronchelli. 2018. “Experimental Evidence for Tipping Points in Social Convention.” Science 360 (6393): 1116–19. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas8827.
Coase, Ronald H. 1960. “The Problem of Social Cost.” The Journal of Law and Economics III: 1–44.
Couto, Marta C., Jorge M. Pacheco, and Francisco C. Santos. 2020. “Governance of Risky Public Goods Under Graduated Punishment.” Journal of Theoretical Biology 505: 110423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110423.
Dal Bó, Ernesto. 2006. “Regulatory Capture: A Review.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22 (2): 203–25. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grj013.
Dal Bó, Pedro, and Guillaume R. Fréchette. 2018. “On the Determinants of Cooperation in Infinitely Repeated Games: A Survey.” Journal of Economic Literature 56 (1): 60–114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20160980.
Dayton-Johnson, Jeff, and Pranab Bardhan. 2002. “Inequality and Conservation on the Local Commons: A Theoretical Exercise.” The Economic Journal 112 (481): 577–602. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00731.
Demsetz, Harold. 1967. “Toward a Theory of Property Rights.” American Economic Review 57 (2): 347–59.
Dorsch, Marcel J., and Christian Flachsland. 2017. A Polycentric Approach to Global Climate Governance.” Global Environmental Politics 17 (2): 45–64. https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00400.
Dunbar, R. I. M. 1993. “Coevolution of Neocortical Size, Group Size and Language in Humans.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 16 (4): 681–735. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X00032325.
Farrell, Joseph, and Matthew Rabin. 1996. “Cheap Talk.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10 (3): 103–18. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.3.103.
Fehr, Ernst, and Simon Gächter. 2000. “Cooperation and Punishment in Public Goods Experiments.” American Economic Review 90 (4): 980–94. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.980.
Fehr, Ernst, and Klaus M. Schmidt. 1999. “A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (3): 817–68. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556151.
Fiorina, Morris P., and Charles R. Plott. 1978. “Committee Decisions Under Majority Rule: An Experimental Study.” American Political Science Review 72: 575–98.
Fischbacher, Urs, Simon Gächter, and Ernst Fehr. 2001. “Are People Conditionally Cooperative? Evidence from a Public Goods Experiment.” Economics Letters 71 (3): 397–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00394-9.
Friedman, James W. 1971. “A Non-Cooperative Equilibrium for Supergames.” The Review of Economic Studies 38 (1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296617.
Fudenberg, Drew, and Eric Maskin. 1986. “The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information.” Econometrica 54 (3): 533–54. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1911307.
Gibbard, Allan. 1973. “Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result.” Econometrica 41: 587–601.
Goodhart, C. A. E. 1984. “Problems of Monetary Management: The UK Experience.” In Monetary Theory and Practice: The UK Experience. Macmillan Education UK. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-17295-5_4.
Hardin, Garrett. 1968. The Tragedy of the Commons.” Science 162 (3859): 1243–48. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1243.
Heikkila, Tanya, Sergio Villamayor-Tomas, and Dustin E. Garrick. 2018. Bringing polycentric systems into focus for environmental governance.” Environmental Policy and Governance 28 (4): 207–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1809.
Henrich, J., R. McElreath, J. Ensminger, et al. 2006. “Costly Punishment Across Human Societies.” Science 312: 1767–70.
Herrmann, Benedikt, Christian Thöni, and Simon Gächter. 2008. “Antisocial Punishment Across Societies.” Science 319 (5868): 1362–67. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153808.
Holmstrom, Bengt, and Paul Milgrom. 1991. “Multitask Principal-Agent Analyses: Incentive Contracts, Asset Ownership, and Job Design.” Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization 7: 24–52.
Isaac, R. Mark, and James M. Walker. 1988. “Communication and Free-Riding Behavior: The Voluntary Contribution Mechanism.” Economic Inquiry 26 (4): 585–608. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1988.tb01519.x.
Janssen, Marco A., Robert Holahan, Allen Lee, and Elinor Ostrom. 2010. “Lab Experiments for the Study of Social-Ecological Systems.” Science 328 (5978): 613–17. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183532.
Klingeren, Fijnanda van, and Vincent Buskens. 2024. “Graduated Sanctioning, Endogenous Institutions and Sustainable Cooperation in Common-Pool Resources: An Experimental Test.” Rationality and Society 36 (2): 183–229. https://doi.org/10.1177/10434631231219608.
Klose, Ann Kristin, Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Jonathan F. Donges. 2021. What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? Environmental Research Letters 16 (12): 125002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955.
Kreps, David M, Paul Milgrom, John Roberts, and Robert Wilson. 1982. “Rational Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma.” Journal of Economic Theory 27 (2): 245–52. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(82)90029-1.
Lenton, Timothy M., Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, et al. 2019. Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against.” Nature 575: 592–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0.
Lohmann, Johannes, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra. 2021. Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point.” Earth System Dynamics 12: 819–35. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021.
Loomis, James L. 1959. “Communication, the Development of Trust, and Cooperative Behavior.” Human Relations 12 (4): 305–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/001872675901200402.
Lucas, Robert E. 1976. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1: 19–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6.
Malézieux, Antoine, and Eli Spiegelman. 2025. “An Anatomical Review of the Common Pool Resource Game.” Experimental Economics 28 (3): 468--491. https://doi.org/10.1017/eec.2024.6.
Manheim, David, and Scott Garrabrant. 2019. Categorizing Variants of Goodhart’s Law. https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585.
Marwell, Gerald, and Ruth E. Ames. 1981. “Economists Free Ride, Does Anyone Else?: Experiments on the Provision of Public Goods, IV.” Journal of Public Economics 15 (3): 295–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(81)90013-X.
McKelvey, Richard D. 1976. “Intransitivities in Multidimensional Voting Models and Some Implications for Agenda Control.” Journal of Economic Theory 12 (3): 472–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(76)90040-5.
Meadows, Donella H., Jørgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows. 2004. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green Publishing.
Morrison, Tiffany H., W. Neil Adger, Katrina Brown, et al. 2019. The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance.” Global Environmental Change 57: 101934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101934.
Motesharrei, Safa, Jorge Rivas, and Eugenia Kalnay. 2014. Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies.” Ecological Economics 101: 90–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014.
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Harvard University Press.
Oprea, Ryan, Gary Charness, and Daniel Friedman. 2014. “Continuous Time and Communication in a Public-Goods Experiment.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 108: 212–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.09.012.
Ostrom, Elinor. 1990. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511807763.
Ostrom, Elinor. 2010. Beyond Markets and States: Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems.” American Economic Review 100 (3): 641–72. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.641.
Ostrom, Elinor, James Walker, and Roy Gardner. 1992. “Covenants with and Without a Sword: Self-Governance Is Possible.” The American Political Science Review 86 (2): 404–17. https://doi.org/10.2307/1964229.
Pariser, Eli. 2011. The Filter Bubble: What the Internet Is Hiding from You. Penguin Press.
Pigou, Arthur Cecil. 1920. The Economics of Welfare. Macmillan.
Plott, Charles R. 1967. “A Notion of Equilibrium and Its Possibility Under Majority Rule.” American Economic Review 57 (4).
Sally, David. 1995. “Conversation and Cooperation in Social Dilemmas: A Meta-Analysis of Experiments from 1958 to 1992.” Rationality and Society 7 (1): 58–92. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463195007001004.
Satterthwaite, Mark Allen. 1975. “Strategy-Proofness and Arrow’s Conditions: Existence and Correspondence Theorems for Voting Procedures and Social Welfare Functions.” Journal of Economic Theory 10 (2): 187–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(75)90050-2.
Scheffer, Marten. 2009. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton University Press.
Sen, Amartya. 1970a. Collective Choice and Social Welfare. Holden-Day.
Sen, Amartya. 1970b. “The Impossibility of a Paretian Liberal.” Journal of Political Economy 78 (1): 152–57. https://doi.org/10.1086/259614.
Sinet, Sacha, Robbin Bastiaansen, Christian Kuehn, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra. 2025. Approximating the bifurcation diagram of weakly and strongly coupled leading-following systems.” Chaos 35 (6): 063135. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0269773.
Stavins, Robert N. 1998. “What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12 (3): 69–88. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.12.3.69.
Strathern, Marilyn. 1997. ‘Improving Ratings’: Audit in the British University System.” European Review 5 (3): 305–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1234-981X(199707)5:3<305::AID-EURO184>3.0.CO;2-4.
Sunstein, Cass R. 2017. #Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media. Princeton University Press.
Volk, Stefan, Christian Thöni, and Winfried Ruigrok. 2012. “Temporal Stability and Psychological Foundations of Cooperation Preferences.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 81 (2): 664–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.006.
Wunderling, Nico, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, et al. 2024. Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review.” Earth System Dynamics 15: 41–74. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024.
Yamagishi, Toshio. 1986. “The Provision of a Sanctioning System as a Public Good.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51 (1): 110–16. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.1.110.